New Year Brings Fresh Strength for South African Rand

After a rocky end to 2024, the South African rand began the new year on a high note Thursday. The rand was up 0.6% from its last finish trading at 18.7625 against the dollar at 0803 GMT.

Trade in the rand, like that of most emerging market currencies, was unstable in November and December following Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States due to a more aggressive view from the Federal Reserve and uncertainty about his planned tariffs and other measures.

Andre Cilliers, TreasuryONE’s currency analyst warned that “the short-term outlook for the local currency remains negative as international factors and the strength of the Dollar weigh,” in a note.

The Top-40 index was up around 1% on the stock market. The benchmark 2030 government bond from South Africa had a slight increase in strength with the yield falling 1 basis point to 9.04%.

This rise in the rand at the beginning of 2025 is based on a hope for stabilization of the global economic situation in which traders feel optimistic but are still cautious. 

According to analysts, while the currency appreciates, the long-term movement of the currency is still greatly dependent on factors outside its borders such as the monetary policy decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the appetite for risk for emerging market assets globally.

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At home, South Africa is still facing structural issues that are relatively high unemployment, a constraint in power supplies and fiscal deficits. These have maintained investor caution that would have otherwise helped extend rallies for the rand.

Commodity prices particularly gold and platinum have lately increased and are major exports for South Africa hence providing some alleviation to the currency.