Ethiopia warns strongly of growing tensions with Egypt and Somalia

Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed cautions against any invasion since tensions over territory disputes and the Nile dam project are rising between Egypt and Somalia.

Emphasizing Ethiopia’s historical fortitude in defending itself, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has sent a strong warning to any nation considering an invasion of Ethiopia. Abiy said in a broadcast speech on Ethiopia’s Sovereignty Day that anyone considering invading an East African country should “think not just once but 10 times” before acting.

His comments contrast with growing regional tensions between Egypt and Somalia, neighbors. Although he did not particularly mention any nations, recent diplomatic and military actions in the area point to Egypt and Somalia, both of which have lately strengthened military cooperation as the target of the warning.

Concerns of Somalia About Somaliland Deal

Ethiopia’s January deal with the self-declared republic of Somaliland, which Mogadishu still believes to be part of its territory, fuels conflict with Somalia. Ethiopia’s agreement offers the landlocked nation access to a port in Somaliland, a step Somalia has labeled as “act of aggression.” To respond, Somalia has pursued tighter military connections with Egypt, further aggravating the circumstances.

To further heighten the tensions, Somaliland has allegedly offered Ethiopia’s navy lease of some of its coast. Somaliland seeks official recognition from Ethiopia as an independent state in return, aggravating tensions with Somalia.

Egypt’s Continuum of Conflict Regarding the Nile

Ethiopia’s relations with Egypt remain tense meanwhile over the building of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a huge hydroelectric project on the Blue Nile. Egypt depends on the Nile rivers for agricultural and drinking purposes, hence the dam will drastically cut its portion. Egypt has been outspoken about its worries as the long-standing water conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia causes diplomatic difficulties.

Following the signing of a military agreement between Egypt and Somalia, recent reports indicate that Egypt is intending to send up to 10,000 troops there as part of a new-look African Union ( AU) force. Arriving toward the end of the year, this force will strengthen Somalia’s military might, complicating Ethiopia’s position in the area.

Regional Escalation

Already serving with the current AU mission in Somalia, Ethiopian troops have been supporting the Somali government in its fight against the Islamist group al-Shabab since 2007. But Somalia has declared that Ethiopian troops will have to leave the nation next year, therefore indicating a possible change in regional military relations.

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Abiy underlined Ethiopia’s readiness to protect its sovereignty even while he underlined that it has no intentions of starting war. Ethiopia has a long history of resisting invasions, he cautioned any attackers. In his speech, he added, “We usually disgrace and repel those who dare try to invade us, cautions that any attack would encounter a formidable defense.

Given the geopolitical relevance of the Horn of Africa and the long-standing historical tensions between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Egypt, the world community is keenly observing the changes in the area.