After an extraordinary rally in 2024–2025, global cocoa prices have sharply cooled in early 2026. Prices have fallen more than 10% year-to-date, slipping to around $4,030 per tonne by February 2, a dramatic drop from last year’s record highs above $11,000. The fall marks a clear shift in the cocoa market, driven by a sudden improvement in supply and softer demand from chocolate makers.
A Big Turnaround in Cocoa Supply
The biggest reason behind the price crash is better harvest prospects in West Africa, which produces nearly 70% of the world’s cocoa. Countries like the Ivory Coast and Ghana are seeing favourable rainfall and growing conditions after two years of drought and disease.
Mid-crop harvests expected in February–March 2026 are now projected to be much stronger. This is a major reversal from 2024–2025, when output dropped by as much as 40%, triggering panic buying and record prices.
High prices last year also encouraged farmers to reinvest in cocoa farms, replant ageing trees, and use better inputs. As a result, global cocoa production is estimated to have grown by 7.6%, pushing the market toward a surplus in the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons.
Demand Takes a Hit
While supply has improved, demand has weakened. Chocolate manufacturers cut back purchases after struggling with elevated cocoa costs for months. Global cocoa grindings—an indicator of demand—fell by 4.3%, especially in Europe, where consumer spending on chocolate slowed.
Lower processing activity, rising inventories, and cautious buying behaviour added pressure to prices. In the U.S., tariff reductions on cocoa imports further weighed on the market, while speculative traders exited positions, accelerating the decline amid thin liquidity.
Analysts expect continued pressure through much of 2026, as surplus supplies work through the system. However, most experts do not see prices collapsing to pre-2024 levels.
Structural challenges—such as ageing cocoa trees, farmer income issues, and climate risks—are still very real. Over the long term, cocoa prices are expected to stabilise in the $4,000–$6,000 range, with sharp swings likely if weather conditions change.
Summary
Cocoa’s price crash in 2026 reflects a return to balance after an extreme shortage-driven rally. For now, better crops and weaker demand are winning—but volatility remains part of cocoa’s story.
