The price of Brent crude is approaching the level of $109 per barrel, which may add to the pressure on African economies that rely mostly on fuel imports as conflicts in the Middle East disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. The price of Brent hit $109.97 on September 11 before falling, but it still remains much higher than last week.
For African countries with struggling currencies, low forex reserves, and significant dependency on imported fuels, the shock may come pretty quickly.
Reasons For The Latest Oil Price Increase
The current increase in oil prices has been brought about by the ongoing conflict between Iran, the U.S., and other regional players.
Also, the forces loyal to the Houthis in Yemen have increased their attacks on the energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, they managed to take control of the Mocha Red Sea port, putting them closer to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. In August 2026, oil production by Saudi Arabia decreased to 6.2 million barrels per day.
The combination of the above factors has led to increases in the cost of insurance as well as shipping costs. The effect of all these increases has been a higher risk premium for fuel in the global market.
Which African Economies Are Most Vulnerable To This Crisis?
Egypt is one of the biggest financial casualties of the oil price crisis among African economies. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimated that the country spent an extra $5.2 billion on importing fossil fuel between March and August 2026, which represents about 1.33% of the country’s GDP. South Africa has had an estimated additional cost of $3.5 billion.
It is especially vulnerable as high international prices cause increased prices for its imports and increased pressure on the local currency and general inflationary environment.
Another group of countries that will suffer is Kenya and others in East Africa that import fuel. High prices for crude and refined products can drive up the cost of transport, power generation, and agriculture. In the case of inland countries such as Uganda and Rwanda, increased transport and freight costs will be another element in consumer prices.
Why Currency Weakness Exacerbates the Problem
Crude oil is usually priced in US dollars. Therefore, devaluation of an African currency versus the dollar makes the domestic effect of the increase in the international price of crude oil more dramatic.
The chain of effects does not end there, as fuel is used widely as an important element in transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, and power generation. Therefore, increases in diesel prices will make food distribution and its prices more expensive.
There has been research done by the International Food Policy Research Institute to show just how much the price of fuel is tied into the African food system, since diesel is what makes up a lot of the transport infrastructure to get the products to the consumer.
Africa’s Winners and Losers
The impact of the oil crisis is not being felt uniformly throughout Africa.
Countries that are big suppliers of oil and gas, like Nigeria and Angola, stand to gain due to higher export prices as long as production and transportation stay steady. CREA approximated that the total gains for the African fossil fuel exporters were about $21.6 billion from March until August, almost offsetting the losses of the importers.
Africa’s Economic Pulse: Oil, Currency & Growth Under Pressure
- What Will Kenya’s $400M Cover?
Check out how World Bank financing could support Kenya amid health, weather, and oil challenges. - Will Hormuz Restrictions Keep Oil Rising?
Find out how US-Iran tensions could affect oil prices and Strait of Hormuz access. - Which African Countries Face Fuel Pain?
Uncover the African nations most vulnerable to higher fuel prices from the Hormuz crisis. - How Will Cedi Weakness Affect Ghana?
Browse the impact of currency depreciation on prices, imports, and travelers in Ghana. - Can Nigeria’s Bonga Deal Boost Growth?
Reveal how the $21 billion oil deal could influence jobs, production, and Nigeria’s economy.
