Mekelle has fallen again, but peace has not followed. The Ethiopia Tigray war escalation is now pulling the whole Horn of Africa into a dangerous guessing game about who will act next.
A capital retaken, a war unfinished
After nearly two weeks of heavy fighting, Ethiopian federal forces entered the Tigrayan capital as rebel groups, including the TPLF, pulled out. The fighting, which began late last month, has effectively ended the 2022 Pretoria ceasefire.
The rebels have retreated into the countryside and vowed to fight on. TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said they will fight “on our terms”. History offers a warning. In 2020, Addis Ababa also declared victory after taking Mekelle, yet Tigrayan forces regrouped in the mountains and the war dragged on for roughly another year and a half.
Eritrea’s shadow
The most worrying development is the reported arrival of Eritrean troops in northern Tigrayan towns such as Adigrat. Eritrea has neither confirmed nor denied it. Relations with Ethiopia have collapsed: Addis Ababa expelled Eritrean diplomats on October 1, and Asmara cut ties in response.
Analysts say Eritrea may prefer to see the fighting stay inside the conflicted land rather than on its own soil, which gives it a reason to back forces that can keep Ethiopia’s army busy.
A wider contest
Behind it all sits Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s push for Red Sea access. Ethiopia has been landlocked since 1991 and relies heavily on Djibouti for trade. Abiy repeated his goal this week after being sworn in for another five-year term.
Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia, whose leaders met in New Alamein on October 4, share unease about Ethiopian ambitions, including over the Nile dam. Their meeting was not a military alliance, though, and each has its own limits. Sudan is consumed by its own war, and Somalia faces its own security troubles.
Ethiopia also faces insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia. If those fronts stay active, the army will be stretched thin.
So will neighbours intervene? Direct military action looks unlikely for now. Quiet support for armed groups is a more realistic risk, and that is exactly how regional wars grow.
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