Mekelle, Tigray Rebels Pull Out | Ethiopia

When the Tigray People’s Liberation Front walked out of its own capital, it sent a message across the Horn of Africa. Ethiopian rebel forces withdraw from Tigray capital Mekelle after weeks of fighting, leaving a city of hundreds of thousands to wonder what comes next. Residents have lived through this before, and few are celebrating.

A Withdrawal, Not a Surrender

The TPLF says it left Mekelle temporarily because of risks to civilians, and its chairman, Debretsion Gebremichael, says the conflict remains fluid and the group will continue its work from another location. Two residents told the BBC that pro-government forces now control the city, and one said mobile phone services have resumed in parts of it. The TPLF had seized Mekelle’s airport on September 23, which led Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to Mekelle, Axum and Shire.

A Peace Under Strain

The fighting has spread across Tigray, Afar and Amhara, and it threatens the 2022 agreement that ended a two-year civil war that an African Union mediator estimated killed about 600,000 people. That number explains the fear in the streets. Many families are still rebuilding from the last war.

The conflict also has a regional edge. Ethiopia accuses Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan of backing the rebels, which they deny. The US State Department called for restraint and dialogue ahead of a meeting in Egypt with leaders from some of Ethiopia’s neighbours. Any widening of the fight would be felt well beyond Ethiopia’s borders, in trade, refugee flows and security.

What to Watch

Three things matter most. First, whether the federal government and its allies can keep order in Mekelle without reprisals. Second, where the TPLF regroups and whether it keeps fighting. Third, whether African Union and regional mediators can turn the diplomacy into a ceasefire.

For now, the guns around the city have gone quiet, but nobody in Tigray believes the story is over. Reporting from inside the region remains limited, so details may shift in the coming days. Ethiopia has learned the hard way that a withdrawal is not peace, and its neighbours will be watching closely.