Washington has delivered a heavy blow to two of Africa’s most closely watched economies. The US trade deal known as AGOA will go ahead without South Africa and Rwanda from 1 January, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced on Monday.
Greer said both countries engaged in practices “inconsistent” with the programme’s eligibility rules. He pointed to barriers that hurt American trade and investment, and to conduct he said threatens US national security and foreign policy interests in the region. He gave no detailed list.
Two Countries, Two Different Disputes
South Africa’s troubles with Washington have built for months. The United States has stepped up its criticism of Pretoria, including claims of discrimination against white Afrikaners, which the South African government rejects. President Cyril Ramaphosa told the country just over a week ago to prepare for a bad outcome. Trade Minister Parks Tau insisted the economy would stay stable as it looks for other markets.
Rwanda’s case looks more like geopolitics. Last week the US sanctioned Rwanda’s defence ministry over its alleged backing of the M23 rebel group in eastern DR Congo, which Kigali denies. Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe has argued that Rwanda cannot stay the scapegoat for Congo’s crisis forever.
Why AGOA Matters Beyond the Boardroom
AGOA gives eligible sub-Saharan countries duty-free access to the American market, and South Africa is its biggest beneficiary. The programme has been renewed until the end of 2028, but the US president reviews every country’s eligibility each year. For exporters, that means orders, contracts and jobs can hinge on a decision taken in Washington rather than Pretoria or Kigali.
What Happens Next
Any removal requires 60 days’ notice to Congress and the country concerned, and the January start date leaves little room to manoeuvre.
Africans have heard this lesson before. Preferential access is a favour, and favours can be withdrawn. The decision strengthens the case for trading more within the continent and widening the list of buyers, something African leaders have long promised. For workers in Johannesburg’s warehouses or Kigali’s export businesses, the question is simple: how fast can new markets replace the old one?
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