South Africans head to the polls tomorrow in a contest nobody expects to produce a clear winner. The South Africa elections will decide who runs councils in all 257 municipalities, including the eight metros that drive the economy.
A Voter Walks Away from the ANC
Mpho Moroka, 38, is unemployed and lives in Soweto. She first voted in 2008 for the African National Congress. This time she is backing the Democratic Alliance. “I saw the poverty, I saw the struggles and I saw that there is no change,” she told Reuters at a DA rally.
Her switch reflects a wider trend. Analyst Louw Nel of Oxford Economics Africa says polling suggests ANC support could drop to between 31 and 34 percent, roughly half the share it won in 2011. But the DA is not capturing all the lost votes. Many are scattering to the Economic Freedom Fighters, to Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe, and to hundreds of smaller parties on the ballot.
Seven Mayors in Five Years
Johannesburg shows what fragmentation can cost. The city has had seven mayors since 2021, and its previous two mayors came from a party holding just three of 270 council seats. Yunus Chamda of the Joburg Crisis Alliance argues that leaving coalition deals to the parties themselves creates huge instability.
Even the politicians admit the strain. The ANC’s Johannesburg chairperson, Loyiso Masuku, said coalitions make it hard to deliver a full programme. DA mayoral candidate Helen Zille was blunter, saying coalitions “hold you back.”
Who Can Hold the Centre?
Analysts suggest one route to stability is for the ANC and DA, already partners in national government since 2024, to repeat that arrangement in cities like Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni. Neither party seems keen.
The election has also been messy behind the scenes. The electoral commission had to reprint millions of ballots after a Constitutional Court ruling added more parties, delaying some Cape Town voting stations.
For residents, the real test comes after the count. Potholes, water cuts and broken streetlights do not wait for coalition talks to finish.
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