Four years after a peace deal, northern Ethiopia is again in a grey zone. The Tigray conflict has flared anew, and while federal forces now control the regional capital Mekelle after a short war, nobody can say the fighting is truly over.
A calm that is not peace
Residents across central, northern and north-western Tigray told the BBC that fighting continues, with heavy artillery and drone strikes. Verified information is hard to get, and the BBC says it cannot report from inside the region. In Mekelle, ordinary life is a struggle, with severe economic hardship and deep uncertainty about what comes next. The 2022 Pretoria agreement that ended the earlier war left many political and territorial disputes unresolved. That is why this flare-up feels so familiar to many Ethiopians.
Two readings of the future
Analysts disagree on where this leads. Yared Tibebu, a US-based Ethiopian commentator, sees a real risk of a prolonged war in Tigray. Analyst Hudson says the TPLF has lost popular support and is fragmented, and lacks the advanced military technology to match the national army. He rejects the idea of a long war, but agrees the region may not be truly peaceful for some time.
The Eritrea factor
Neighbouring Eritrea complicates everything. In early October, eyewitnesses told the BBC they saw Eritrean troops in Tigray amid reports they were backing the TPLF. Sources in the Ethiopian army say senior TPLF political figures were briefly based in Eritrea, but were ordered to leave in early November, shortly after President Isaias Afwerki returned from Russia. Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have been tense since the earlier war, and any spillover would worry the whole Horn of Africa.
Why it matters beyond Ethiopia
Ethiopia is East Africa’s heavyweight, and instability there ripples into Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia, which already face their own crises. Millions in Tigray have lived through hunger and displacement before, and many now fear going through it again.
Winning a city is not the same as winning peace. Without real talks and humanitarian access, Tigray may stay stuck between war and peace.
Read More
DR Congo Ebola Outbreak Passes 11,000 Cases as Gunfire Slows the Fight
Nigeria Re-Election Manifesto: Can Tinubu Win Back Trust?
Uganda Succession Showdown: Ruling Party Slams the Door on Museveni’s Son
African Oil Exports Get a Boost as Asia Shops the Atlantic
Vinicius Jr Sudan: A Football Star’s Message Lifts a Boy Who Lost His Legs
