South Africa’s local government elections scheduled for November 4, 2026, can become yet another political watershed moment in the country’s history, as analysts predict a large number of municipalities to be born without a majority.
The election will take place just about two years after the defeat of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in the national election, losing its national majority for the first time since the apartheid regime was abolished. The dramatic decline in the 2024 general election forced the party to embrace coalition politics both at the national and provincial level.
However, now this political paradigm shift is coming to the local government. South Africans will vote for municipal councillors in 257 municipalities, with the results of the election being able to leave over half of them hung.
Why Are Hung Councils Getting Prevalent in South Africa?
South Africa’s local elections adopt a hybrid electoral system. Citizens can elect a political party through proportional representation as well as elect a ward councillor.
That enables minor political parties to obtain sufficient seats to become influential despite not being able to capture a municipality.
The phenomenon has gained momentum since the 2024 general election, where the ANC only garnered 40.2% of the national vote share against the 57.5% it captured in 2019.
With the rise of uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), a party led by former President Jacob Zuma, South Africa’s political sphere has been fragmented further. MK attained 14.6% of the national vote share and emerged as the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal.
The ANC had to form a Government of National Unity (GNU) with other parties, including the DA, to maintain national political stability.
Johannesburg Could Prove the Big Fight of the Election
The City of Johannesburg is anticipated to be one of the most keenly watched races.
No political party has had an outright majority in the metropolitan municipality since 2016. The ANC has been heading a coalition that has been criticized for service delivery, poor financial administration and political instability.
The DA hopes to make big gains.
Latest polls that have been quoted in the election analysis suggest that the DA will win approximately 42% while the ANC will win approximately 18% in Johannesburg.
However, the DA might end up as the largest party should the polls be converted to votes. This would depend on how many seats the DA and other parties would get in the councils.
What Could Occur in Tshwane, Durban and Ekurhuleni?
There could be equally dramatic results from the other metropolitan municipalities.
For example, the latest polling puts the DA at approximately 43% while the ANC at 32% in Tshwane. It means that the DA could win but might not necessarily get an outright majority.
It would make small political parties king-makers in these instances.
In Ekurhuleni, it is believed that the ANC will lose even more ground, and MK would take on the role of king-maker.
Nelson Mandela Bay would be witnessing another tight race between the DA and the ANC, and the Patriotic Alliance might end up playing the role of king-maker in this instance.
The ANC is projected to maintain its hold over Buffalo City, but the DA is going to maintain its supremacy over Cape Town. Mangaung might become another instance of coalition municipalities if the ANC does not reach 50%.
Reasons for the Concerns regarding Coalition Governments
Coalitions are nothing new in the South African local governments.
Municipalities such as Johannesburg, Tshwane and several other municipalities have seen instabilities in their coalitions and disagreements among their partners over the last decade.
One of the country’s most serious challenges is the lack of a statutory framework for the formation and operation of coalitions.
Political parties would then be forced to make agreements on aspects such as mayorships, committee members, budgetary policies and many others.
However, even though there is a potential governance framework proposed by the Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs, this is not going to become applicable before the November election.
Meaning of the Election for the ANC
For the ANC, the November election might become particularly meaningful.
At present, the party is actually ruling the country in a coalition due to losing its majority back in 2024. Based on the forecast for the upcoming election, the ANC is estimated to receive around 35% nationally.
This might further aggravate the discussion about the leadership of the party and its prospects.
Also, this can have certain implications in terms of preparing for the elective conference of the party scheduled to take place in 2027.
It will be the year when the successor to President Cyril Ramaphosa will be chosen within the ANC.
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