Violence has erupted again in Baidoa, Somalia, where the federal government forces are clashing with the militias of the former leader of South West State, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen.
The violence is not merely another fight between Al-Shabaab and others. What lies at the heart of the crisis is the political and security struggle over control of South West State and Somalia’s federal government’s control over it.
The clashes put into jeopardy the stability of the city that is strategically significant to the government of Somalia and its efforts against Al-Shabaab.
What Is Causing the Conflict Between Federal Forces and Fighters in Baidoa?
The current conflict started on March 30, 2026, when the federal forces captured control of Baidoa. After that, Laftagareen resigned from his position as the president of South West State.
However, the political disagreement did not stop at that point, since the fighters loyal to the former head of the state have been fighting against the federal forces that are stationed in and near Baidoa.
The conflict is associated with the disagreement about federalism and the future of the region in question.
Who Are Loyalists of Laftagareen?
The armed groups in the conflict are the fighters who are loyal to Laftagareen and his political allies.
They do not agree with the excessive involvement of the federal authorities in the affairs of South West State. The city of Mogadishu tries to increase the power of the federal government and to keep its control over the strategic territory.
Thus, the conflict blurs the line between the political struggle and the security problem in Somalia.
Has Al-Shabaab Participated?
The Defense Ministry of Somalia says that Al-Shabaab has also participated in these raids together with fighters associated with Laftagareen.
This is an important point to make since Baidoa is always an important target for Somalia’s efforts to fight the militant organization.
It must, however, be remembered that the participation of Al-Shabaab in the recent attacks must not be confused with another political conflict between the federal forces and South West State-linked militiamen.
Why is Baidoa Important?
Baidoa is the administrative capital of South West State and an important city in Somalia.
Control of Baidoa has many implications politically and militarily, and also in terms of access to the surrounding areas. Any protracted fighting can thus have implications going beyond Baidoa.
The renewed violence also endangers civilians and humanitarian missions in an area that suffers from forced migration and insecurity.
What comes next?
In the short term, the problem for Somalia’s federal government is how to ensure stability in Baidoa without letting the political conflict with South West State escalate into a wider regional dispute.
The military solution may fail to solve the core of the problem. Discussions about regional autonomy, political representation, and the relationship between Mogadishu and South West State will be at the center of the matter.
For the time being, Baidoa has become yet another example of the fragility of the Somali federation. The longer the political dispute remains unresolved, the more likely it is that political conflicts will be solved by military means.
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