The security transition taking place in Somalia is under threat due to the problems related to the funding of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). Somalia security mission funding crisis, The mission depends greatly on international financing, UN logistical assistance, and Western contributions in order to continue functioning.
According to security experts, there is a possibility that Somalia will face security, humanitarian, and political problems if the current situation is not solved in some way. The consequences may vary depending on the way funding is cut, but experts predict that risks may be high.
Why AUSSOM Faces the Funding Problem?
AUSSOM replaced the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and is aimed at supporting Somali security forces in their struggle with Al-Shabaab militants.
The mission requires international cooperation to provide funding for the following:
- Deployment of troops.
- Logistics and transportation.
- Fuel.
- Medical evacuation.
- Equipment and operations support.
Without adequate financial support, sustaining current levels of operations will become more challenging.
Possible Threats Arising from Reduced International Presence
The most dangerous threat may be a security gap if peacekeeping operations are considerably reduced without Somali forces being ready to take over more responsibility.
The experts state that this situation will allow Al-Shabaab to:
- Expand activities in rural regions.
- Attacking government facilities.
- Control transport routes.
- Threatening urban populations.
Factors affecting the speed and scale of these changes include various military and political aspects, but in general, security specialists consider any quick withdrawal of help as risky.
Security Forces of Somalia Facing a Challenging Transition Period
The Somali National Army (SNA) has been progressing recently with help from international partners.
However, it should be noted that investment is required in such spheres as:
- Training.
- Equipment.
- Logistics.
- Intelligence.
- Coordination of command.
Withdrawal of foreign aid may add some strain on Somali forces in their efforts to take over security responsibility.
Regional Stability Might Also Be Affected
The repercussions of decreased security aid do not stop at Somalia.
Countries near Somalia, such as Kenya and Uganda, have in the past contributed troops to the African Union peacekeeping forces and will remain vigilant for any security developments.
An adverse development in Somalia’s security conditions can increase fears about:
- Cross border militants attacks.
- Refugees’ movements.
- Regional anti-terrorism efforts.
- Maritime security in the Horn of Africa.
Other experts have warned about the possibility of increased risk of piracy in the western Indian Ocean due to coastal insecurity, but whether that is true or not depends on several considerations.
Humanitarian Efforts May Experience Further Difficulties
International aid is important for humanitarian logistics via the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS).
UN aid facilitates:
- Transportation of humanitarian efforts.
- Medical evacuations.
- Fuel and logistics.
- Access to far-flung regions.
Any disruption of these services may add complications to the humanitarian effort needed by millions of Somalis.
Is It Possible for Somalia to Seek More International Partners?
If there is any reduction in funding by international organizations, then Somalia and the African Union can consider looking into partnering with other nations and other regional players.
According to analysts, this would include greater collaboration with other partners, including:
- Nations from the Gulf.
- China.
- Russia.
- Various bilateral and multilateral donors.
The effect would be felt in the geopolitics of the region as the nations look for alternatives for security and funding.
The Political Situation Is An Important Consideration
The security transformation process taking place in Somalia is happening concurrently with deliberations over political reforms and federalism.
It is widely accepted that the achievement of security will require political cooperation between the national government and the regions.
This explains why it is seen as an important aspect of stability.
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